A China-Iran-Pakistan Alliance in the Making
Evolving Geopolitics in Southwest Asia with Chinese Characteristics
Chinese, Iranian, Pakistani, and Russian diplomats meet in Dushanbe, Tajikistan
A key element of Communist China’s inexorable march toward leader Xi Jinping’s goal of domination of the world economy involves building partnerships in Southwest Asia. Xi’s signature Belt and Road Initiative involves China underwriting billions of dollars of infrastructure investment in countries along the old Silk Road, a transportation network that facilitated trade between China and the Middle East and Europe from 130 B.C. to 1453 AD.
The modern Silk Road includes branches to ports in Pakistan and Iran. BRI involves exporting Chinese infrastructure capacity as a mechanism for facilitating access to raw materials and energy resources needed by Chinese manufacturing concerns while concurrently developing new overseas markets for Chinese goods.
Communist China seeks to develop an integrated economic market consisting of “all Eurasian nations” – the economic component of a Chinese “new world order.” Integral to the network is development of a series of land corridors to facilitate overland trade, including the China–Central Asia–West Asia Corridor running from Western China to Turkey.
The Chinese strategy involves greatly improved ties with Pakistan and Iran, which is becoming a de facto alliance of sorts.
Let us explore the issue.
CHINA AND IRAN
Communist Chinese relations with Tehran were frosty from 1949 to 1970, as the Iranian diplomatic posture under the Shah was decidedly anti-communist in purpose and intent, with Iran signing the anti-communist Baghdad Pact in 1955 and recognizing the Republic of Taiwan in 1956. The Baghdad Pact was a pro-Western defense alliance between Turkey, Iraq, Iran, Pakistan, and the United Kingdom.
In the late 1960s and early 1970s, the Shah moved his government toward closer relations with China even as US President Richard Nixon was laying the groundwork to “open China” with a surprise visit to Shanghai. In August 1971 the Chinese and Iranian ambassadors met in Islamabad, Pakistan, and signed a document in which Iran formally recognized the Beijing government. At that time, the two governments were aligned in countering the Soviet Union in Southwest Asia.
After the Iranian Revolution, China officially recognized the new Islamic Republic of Iran in February 1979. China became a major arms supplier of Iran during the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War, as Iraq had become a Soviet client state.
Economic and technical cooperation between the two countries has increased ever since. In March 2021, Reuters reported that China and Iran signed a 25-year cooperation agreement that focuses on various joint projects in the oil, mining, transportation, industrial, and agricultural sectors of the Iranian economy under the Belt and Road Initiative. The Associated Press noted that this was “the first time Iran has signed such a lengthy agreement with a major world power.”
That agreement also included plans for cooperation on training and research, defense industries, and military joint ventures in the areas of asymmetric warfare, anti-terrorism, and combating drug trafficking, all of which have been slowed by UN sanctions on Iran. Nevertheless, technology exchanges and military cooperation will continue as those sanctions are eased.
Lastly, Iran formally joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in September 2021, an indication of increasing economic ties with Beijing. China became Iran’s top crude oil customer, “[purchasing] an average 1.05 million barrels per day (bpd) of Iranian oil in the first 10 months of 2023,” as reported by Reuters.
CHINA AND PAKISTAN
China and Pakistan relations have strengthened greatly since Pakistan became the first Muslim country to recognize communist China in 1950. The countries have been diplomatically and militarily aligned as they share a common adversary, India. A key benefit of the relationship for Pakistan was China’s technical assistance in the development and testing of the first “Muslim nuclear weapon” in 1990, as noted by US News and World Report.
The current emphasis of their relationship is developing the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), with the goal being “to connect the deep-sea Pakistani ports of Gwadar and Karachi to [Kashgar in] the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region in China [also known as East Turkmenistan] and beyond.” As a premiere project under the BRI, CPEC is aimed at developing and modernizing Pakistan’s transportation infrastructure to accelerate trade between the two countries, with emphasis on improving electrical distribution and transportation networks.
A key Chinese accomplishment under CPEC was Pakistan’s granting of a 40-year lease of the Gwadar port to China, which provides economic and military benefits that will be far-reaching as the PLA-Navy increases operations in the Arabian Sea and Gulf of Oman.
PAKISTAN AND IRAN
Pakistan (predominantly Sunni Muslim) and Iran (predominantly Shia Muslim) share a 565-mile border that arbitrarily divides “greater Baluchistan” into separate provinces in the south. Pakistani and Iranian relations have evolved greatly over the last forty years. In the last two decades of the twentieth century, geopolitical differences led to tensions and challenges, as Iran was aligned with independent mujahadeen after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan while Pakistan supported the US-led coalition and hosted large numbers of Afghan refugees.
After the September 2001 terrorist attacks, both countries joined the international anti-terrorism coalition and increased “on border security, trade, energy, and cultural exchanges,” as reported here. However, each country backed different factions in Afghanistan, leading to continued competition and tensions between the two countries.
Each has accused the other of supporting insurgent groups and militant attacks in their countries in recent years. The problems escalated in January 2024, as Iran conducted a cross-border missile and drone attack in the Pakistani province of Baluchistan that targeted the Jaish al-Adl group, which Iran claimed was responsible for several attacks inside Iran.
That said, both countries remain interested in security cooperation especially regarding anti-terrorism activities and overall regional security measures.
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS
Last fall, The Diplomat reported “the first meeting of the China-Iran-Pakistan trilateral consultation on counterterrorism and security.” The focus was on increased collaboration among the three nations on counterterrorism, economic integration, and energy cooperation. For Iran and Pakistan, this includes cooperation on handling common Baluchi insurgency problems while China seeks to shape its BRI investment objectives in Iran and Pakistan.
As noted here, this budding alliance could pose major political-military challenges for the US and be “the beginning of an anti-access, area denial strategy against the U.S. Fifth Fleet in the Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea region.”
And on the economic front, with Gwadar port as a commercial trading outlet to the Arabian Sea/Indian Ocean firmly ensconced within China’s web, the Chinese can focus BRI development efforts on another Arabian Sea outlet at the nearby Iranian port of Chabahar. Additionally, it can connect the Chinese land-port of Khorgos on the Kazakhstan border with the Pamir Highway through Kyrgyzstan to Dushanbe, Tajikistan and the north/south road through Afghanistan.
Will China next improve the Makran Coast route in southeastern Iran to Bandar Abbas as the means for further ensnarement of the Euro-African-Middle East trade with China? With the Khorgos to Tehran railroad realized and the Bandar Abbas road simply needing improving, the BRI web is inexorably tightening.
Any seasoned China watcher can easily visualize the potential of these geopolitical and strategic chessboard moves, with the budding China-Pakistan-Iran alliance being a key milestone that will bring Chinese dreams of the New Silk Road to fruition in Southwest Asia.
The end.